This year's elections will be another historic moment for Indonesia in many ways, as we witness the second direct presidential elections since the beginning of the reforms era.
Several political parties have already declared (though some indirectly) their presidential hopefuls: Megawati Soekarnoputri (for PDI-P), Prabowo Subianto (the Gerindra Party), Wiranto (the Hanura Party), Jusuf Kalla (the Golkar Party) and SBY (the Democratic Party).
Until the day voters choose who should be president, these candidates will share party platforms with fellow Indonesians and travel across the country in search of national support for their candidacy.
Presidential candidates all have the opportunity now to offer proposals as to how best to lead the country. Ahead of the election, many have already begun with political maneuvers. But what attracts me most is perhaps Jusuf Kalla whom many see as the strongest competitor of all the presidential candidates.
Jusuf Kalla is currently Vice President, the chairperson of the Golkar Party and lately has been approaching leaders of other major political parties to discuss the possibility of forming a coalition.
Kalla is recognized for the remarkable political skill and courage it took him to work out a peace deal for Aceh and Poso. He once said that democracy is merely a means, and not an end.
Therefore, democracy must come later, after welfare. In the grand meeting of the Golkar Party last year, Kalla also claimed that if elected president, he would perform better and achieve quicker results than the present administration (Antara, March 3). Many see such a claim as a reflection of Kalla's dissatisfaction with certain policies of the current administration.
Vice President Jusuf Kalla has expressed his readiness to run for presidency in the upcoming elections. He is certainly not a new face, but his candidacy will mean there will be one more strong candidate for the presidency of this country in addition to Susilo Bambang Yu-dhoyono and Megawati.
Kalla will give the public another option among a limited selection of presidential candidates. Moreover, given his age - at 67 years - this year's election may be his last chance to prove he can be the number one person to lead Indonesia.
However, while many would like Jusuf Kalla to be president, the question has to be asked, how can we help him win the July election?
This article offers an objective SWOT analysis, looking at strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats to Jusuf Kalla's leadership.
Strengths: Jusuf Kalla, known from the outset as a "trader", entered the administration when he was assigned as industry and trade minister under Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid's administration, but was removed by Gus Dur after only six months in that position.
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Kalla, the seemingly outspoken politician, will need to learn that reporters are hanging on his every word, and the level of scrutiny from the press will certainly be relentless.
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President Megawati then included Kalla in her cabinet and named him a Coordinating Minister for People's Welfare. Kalla then helped resolve inter-religious conflicts in Poso, Central Sulawesi, and in Ambon, Maluku. Kalla is also known for his role as a peacemaker in Aceh.
The 2004 presidential election saw Kalla become a vice presidential candidate to partner Yudhoyono - who then won the run-offs with a 60.87 percent share of the votes.
Kalla's position as Vice President for five years has helped him build up a reputation as a decisive, aggressive and responsive politician. If Yudhoyono is a careful driver, Kalla is a good accelerator who has proven his ability to articulate public policies.
Kalla is also capable of embracing many public figures, including his rivals. Combined with the political support from certain Golkar chapters, this is his greatest strength in running for president.
Weaknesses: While Kalla is the Vice President and one of the top Golkar politicians, he is not a popular figure - at least according to several surveys.
Several influential leaders within the Golkar Party have conflicting interests with Kalla. Friction within Golkar and numerous losses of party cadres in provincial and local elections had a negative impact on his candidacy.
Kalla's non-Javanese background has also been said to be a weakness, even though in a modern democracy ethnicity and race should not be a factor.
On Nov. 2, 2007, Kalla said the president need not be Javanese, as has been the case ever since independence. Will Kalla be able to break this tradition?
Perhaps, many would assume it is better for non-Javanese figures not to nominate themselves for president, because it is unlikely they will be elected.
As time moves on, however, Kalla, the seemingly outspoken politician, will need to learn that reporters are hanging on his every word, and the level of scrutiny from the press will certainly be relentless.
Opportunities: Jusuf Kalla's biggest opportunity is perhaps that he can build on what he already has: tremendous political networking skills, as evidenced by his meetings with other political and religious leaders.
Assuming Golkar wins in the legislative elections, the pressure on Kalla to stand for presidency will undoubtedly increase.
His vast experience as a Golkar politician will provide him with the basic tools that most politicians would kill for.
Kalla is known for his standpoint on the issue of family business. By reducing his involvement in such business, and having the courage to "break" the rules, perhaps Kalla could become an effective leader for Indonesia. Yudhoyono's decision to go on for a second term without naming his running mate provides Kalla with more opportunities.
If Kalla is firm in his candidacy, he has an opportunity to represent himself as a leader who is determined to meet the public demand for a more pragmatic and decisive leader.
Threats: The most obvious threat is that Kalla ranks quite low in the polls compared to his party mate, Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono X, and other presidential candidates.
It is true that the Sultan is a Javanese figure from the Golkar Party who has a good chance at being nominated as a running mate for Kalla. The problem is that the Sultan has stated he would only be nominated as a presidential candidate. So, Kalla is likely to face severe competition from his own fellow party members - perhaps as severe as the competition with candidates of other political parties.
It is almost impossible for Kalla to be a vice president alongside another presidential candidate. If Golkar gets less votes in the April election, then the Democratic Party may consider another option for a vice presidential candidate, leaving Kalla nowhere, as Golkar may also consider another figure as its presidential candidate. Kalla's position is seriously under threat and he risks losing political credibility.
Such a scenario remains a constant threat to Kalla, and one that will not go away anytime soon if Golkar does lose, or gets less votes in the legislative elections.
This SWOT analysis of Kalla's candidacy reveals the probabilities and improbabilities of Kalla gaining a ticket to Merdeka Palace. If he believes policies and figures didn't win the election, then he should go for populist profile which people like most.
The SWOT perspective resulted in four options for Kalla, namely: (1) it is realistic for him to run for presidency because he was in a difficult position; (2) it is not realistic for Kalla to run as a running mate of another candidate; (3) to maintain his duet with Yudhoyono; (4) to become a statesman; or (5) to end his political career. Now, it's up to Jusuf Kalla which option he thinks would suit him best.
The writer is a lecturer in Postgraduate International Relations at the University of Indonesia, Jakarta
source: http://jawabali.com
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