By Leigh Catherine Miles
Editor, Iran Election Bulletin
Dear Reader,
Since the announcement by the Iranian government of a landslide victory for incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad over his closest rival, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, Iran has seen the largest and most violent popular protests since the 1979 Islamic revolution. Iranians, protesting what is largely seen as a rigged election, have poured into the streets of Tehran in the hundreds of thousands and have met an increasingly violent response from the police and basij militias.
To date, according to official reports, 20 people have been killed – including Neda Agha Soltan, a young woman whose death was caught on tape, broadcast around the world and has become a symbol for the Iranian opposition. Unofficial reports place the death toll much higher, and hundreds of protestors have been injured.
Amidst the violence, protesters are using a mix of old and new tactics to get their message out. With foreign and domestic media coverage severely limited or outright banned, Iranians are being forced to tell their own story. In a highly modern campaign – reminiscent of tactics used in Burma and Moldova – protesters are relying upon technology and new media to reach fellow Iranians and the international community. They have proved adept at circumventing government blockages of mobile phone and Internet services, and have utilized Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and other services to become citizen journalists. They are also aided by the millions globally who use social networking sites and are spreading the words and pictures coming out of Iran.
However, the government is becoming increasingly proficient at smothering information. In addition to blocking mobile networks and access to Web sites, the Iranian regime is using sophisticated software to monitor mobile phone and Internet traffic, identify when large amounts of data are sent and pinpoint the source. In addition, the software enables the regime to alter outgoing information to support its own disinformation campaign.
Confronted by violence on the streets and technological barriers, protestors are adding to their toolbox tactics used by the opposition during the 1979 revolution. For example, on a nightly basis, protestors stand on rooftops shouting “God is great!,” using a slogan that cannot be condemned by the Islamic regime, to show solidarity with one another. Other slogans from the revolution, including “Death to the dictator,” have been heard as well.
The regime is taking its own lessons from the 1979 revolution – namely to hold a strong line against the opposition. Hardliners remember the Shah’s moves to seek some accommodation with the opposition in 1978, particularly by selecting an opposition prime minister, as a sign of weakness that emboldened the revolutionaries. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said recently that “neither the establishment nor the nation will yield to pressure at any cost.” For the Supreme Leader, to compromise would be to show weakness that those in the street and rivals in power circles could exploit to the demise of the current regime.
As such, the government continues its violent crackdown on the opposition. Militia and police forces are becoming increasingly brutal and there are reports that troops have been deployed in the streets. High-profile opposition leaders have been arrested, including, according to a report by the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, “102 political figures, 23 journalists, 79 university students and 7 university faculty.” Mousavi’s Web site claims that another 70 university professors have been arrested. The government this week also announced the establishment of a special court to try protestors and mete out punishments.
Despite the harsh response to the popular movement, the Iranian regime is divided within the inner circles of power. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and several senior clerics are lining up in opposition to the Supreme Leader. However, it is unclear whether the split marks a divide between those who want reform and those who maintain a hard line. More likely the rival factions are jockeying for position to lead the existing Islamic Republic.
Protestors clearly want to see a change, but analysis of their ultimate aims is complicated by a lack of leadership. While Mousavi’s defeat may have been the catalyst for the uprising, he no longer appears to be the leader of this movement – if he ever truly was.
It is much too early to claim that the world is witnessing another Iranian revolution that will overturn the revolution of 30 years ago. Repression will almost certainly increase and a hardened dictatorship could remain in control for years. Certainly the government is worried about the potential for large-scale popular protest to evolve rapidly into a grassroots revolution. Protestors have momentum built through the proliferation of new media, which has garnered both domestic and international support. But many questions about the future of the movement persist – where will the momentum take them, how forcefully will the government stand in their way and what ultimately will be the outcome of the election? Ahmadinejad may have been declared the victor, but the election is far from over.
This issue of the Iran Election Bulletin explores the aftermath of the election and the internal rivalries that are threatening the current regime. It also provides first-person accounts of the election and the protests that have followed. As always, I welcome your feedback and comments.
Sincerely,
Leigh Catherine Miles
Editor
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Published on June 26, 2009
source: http://www.ndi.org/node/15582
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