Presidential race may end in a runoff: Survey

Adianto P. Simamora , The Jakarta Post , Jakarta | Wed, 07/08/2009 11:08 AM | Presidential Election

The Indonesian Research Institute (LRI) has released a new survey predicting Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Jusuf Kalla will meet face to face in a runoff election.

The LRI president director, Johan Silalahi, said the institute predicted the presidential election would end in a runoff as no candidate would be able to win an outright majority of votes on Wednesday.

"We predict Yudhoyono and Kalla will win more than 30 percent of the votes each while Megawati will take about 20 percent," he told reporters Tuesday.

The prediction was based on the institute's recent national survey and internal poll which analysed tens of thousands of respondents from the 15 most-populated provinces.

The LRI published a series of ads in several newspapers on Tuesday suggesting that the election would be decided in a runoff vote.

The Indonesian Circle Institute (LSI), led by Denny JA, launched a public campaign calling for voters to support the idea of a single-round election to save state funds.

The ads, seemingly beneficial toward Yudhoyono, drew protests from opponents Kalla and Megawati.

Johan said he would close LRI if the election finished in one-round against their predictions.

Johan said although he had a political allegiance with Kalla, his survey was funded by various businesses, not just by Kalla himself. Johan is also the chairman of the Johans Foundation, a strategic consultative company currently financed by Kalla.

"Surveys declaring that the election will be finished in a single round are designed to manipulate public perception. They are not based on facts," said Yudi Latif, chairman of the Institute for National Strategic Interest and Development (INSIDe).

A survey by INSIDe published Monday found that the winning candidate in Wednesday's election could at most only garner 34 percent of the total vote, meaning an election runoff would have to follow.

Predictions made by the Indonesian Survey Institute, based on a survey conducted between June 30 and July 3, found Yudhoyono would win with an overwhelming 63 percent of votes. This survey was funded by Fox Indonesia, a political consultancy firm contracted by Yudhoyono's Democratic Party.

Another survey by the Indonesian Development Monitoring Institute (IDM) conducted from June 1-16 showed that Megawati led the televised debates with support from 44 percent of the 3,700 surveyed respondents. It said that Yudhoyono won 27 percent support and Kalla 26 percent.